Energy descent as a post-carbon transition scenario: How 'knowledge humility' reshapes energy futures for post-normal times. (September 2020)
- Record Type:
- Journal Article
- Title:
- Energy descent as a post-carbon transition scenario: How 'knowledge humility' reshapes energy futures for post-normal times. (September 2020)
- Main Title:
- Energy descent as a post-carbon transition scenario: How 'knowledge humility' reshapes energy futures for post-normal times
- Authors:
- Floyd, Joshua
Alexander, Samuel
Lenzen, Manfred
Moriarty, Patrick
Palmer, Graham
Chandra-Shekeran, Sangeetha
Foran, Barney
Keyßer, Lorenz - Abstract:
- Abstract: Many studies have concluded that the current global economy can transition from fossil fuels to be powered entirely by renewable energy. While supporting such transition, we critique analysis purporting to conclusively demonstrate feasibility. Deep uncertainties remain about whether renewables can maintain, let alone grow, the range and scale of energy services presently provided by fossil fuels. The more optimistic renewable energy studies rely upon assumptions that may be theoretically or technically plausible, but which remain highly uncertain when real-world practicalities are accounted for. This places investigation of energy-society futures squarely in the domain of post-normal science, implying the need for greater 'knowledge humility' when framing and interpreting the findings from quantitative modelling exercises conducted to investigate energy futures. Greater appreciation for the limits of what we can know via such techniques reveals 'energy descent' as a plausible post-carbon scenario. Given the fundamental dependence of all economic activity on availability of energy in appropriate forms at sufficient rates, profound changes to dominant modes of production and consumption may be required, a view marginalised when more techno-optimistic futures are assumed. Viewing this situation through the lens of 'post-normal times' opens avenues for response that can better support societies in navigating viable futures.
- Is Part Of:
- Futures. Volume 122(2020)
- Journal:
- Futures
- Issue:
- Volume 122(2020)
- Issue Display:
- Volume 122, Issue 2020 (2020)
- Year:
- 2020
- Volume:
- 122
- Issue:
- 2020
- Issue Sort Value:
- 2020-0122-2020-0000
- Page Start:
- Page End:
- Publication Date:
- 2020-09
- Subjects:
- Energy descent -- Energy-society futures -- Energy transition -- Post-normal science -- Quantitative modelling -- Knowledge humility
Economic forecasting -- Periodicals
Technological forecasting -- Periodicals
Economic policy -- Periodicals
Prévision économique -- Périodiques
Prévision technologique -- Périodiques
Politique économique -- Périodiques
Economic forecasting
Economic policy
Technological forecasting
Periodicals
Electronic journals
330.0112 - Journal URLs:
- http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00163287 ↗
http://www.elsevier.com/journals ↗ - DOI:
- 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102565 ↗
- Languages:
- English
- ISSNs:
- 0016-3287
- Deposit Type:
- Legaldeposit
- View Content:
- Available online (eLD content is only available in our Reading Rooms) ↗
- Physical Locations:
- British Library DSC - 4060.650000
British Library DSC - BLDSS-3PM
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