On the Origins of Old Evidence. Issue 3 (2nd July 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Eva, Benjamin; Hartmann, Stephan
• Is Part Of: Australasian journal of philosophy. Volume 98:Issue 3(2020)
• Page Start: 481
• Page End: 494
• Publication Date: 2020-07-02
• Subjects: Bayesianism -- philosophy of science -- epistemology -- probability -- old evidence; Philosophy -- Periodicals; Psychology -- Periodicals; 105
• DOI: 10.1080/00048402.2019.1658210
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0004-8402

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The problem of old evidence, first described by Glymour [1980], is still widely regarded as one of the most pressing foundational challenges to the Bayesian account of scientific reasoning. Many solutions have been proposed, but all of them have drawbacks and none is considered to be definitive. Here, we introduce and defend a new kind of solution, according to which hypotheses are confirmed when we become more confident that they provide the only way of accounting for the known evidence.