Mortality statistics in England and Wales: the SARS-CoV-2 paradox. Issue 6 (June 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Harrison, Gabrielle; Newport, Daniel; Robbins, Tim; Arvanitis, Theodoros N.; Stein, Andrew
• Is Part Of: Journal of international medical research. Volume 48:Issue 6(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-06
• Subjects: SARS-CoV-2 -- COVID-19 -- mortality rate -- respiratory disease -- paradox -- United Kingdom; Medicine -- Periodicals; Pharmacology -- Periodicals; 610.5
• DOI: 10.1177/0300060520931298
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0300-0605

Abstract

Objective: To analyse mortality statistics in the United Kingdom during the initial phases of the severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic and to understand the impact of the pandemic on national mortality. Methods: Retrospective review of weekly national mortality statistics in the United Kingdom over the past 5 years, including subgroup analysis of respiratory mortality rates. Results: During the early phases of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the first months of 2020, there were consistently fewer deaths per week compared with the preceding 5 years. This pattern was not observed at any other time within the past 5 years. We have termed this phenomenon the "SARS-CoV-2 paradox." We postulate potential explanations for this seeming paradox and explore the implications of these data. Conclusions: Paradoxically, but potentially importantly, lower rather than higher weekly mortality rates were observed during the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. This paradox may have implications for current and future healthcare utilisation. A rebound increase in non-SARS-CoV-2 mortality later this year might coincide with the peak of SARS-CoV-2 admissions and mortality.