Estimating the probability of diagnosis within 1 year of HIV acquisition. (1st June 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Xia, Qiang; Lim, Sungwoo; Wu, Baohua; Forgione, Lisa A.; Crossa, Aldo; Balaji, Alexandra B.; Braunstein, Sarah L.; Daskalakis, Demetre C.; Tsoi, Benjamin W.; Harriman, Graham; Torian, Lucia V.; Song, Ruiguang
• Is Part Of: AIDS. Volume 34:Number 7(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-06-01
• Subjects: CD4+ cell count -- diagnosis -- HIV -- probability -- surveillance; AIDS (Disease) -- Periodicals; Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome; AIDS (Disease); Periodicals; Periodicals; 616.9792005
• DOI: 10.1097/QAD.0000000000002510
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0269-9370

Abstract

Abstract : Background: Early diagnosis of HIV is important for the prevention of ongoing transmission and development of HIV-related illness. The purpose of this study is to develop an outcome indicator to monitor the progress in early HIV diagnosis. Methods: Persons diagnosed with HIV in New York City and their first CD4 + test results were used to estimate the distribution of HIV diagnosis delay, based on a CD4 + count depletion model. The distribution was then used to estimate the probability of diagnosis within 1 year of HIV acquisition, which is the number of cases diagnosed in a given calendar year for which diagnosis occurred within 1 year of acquisition divided by the number of incident cases in that calendar year. Results: In 2012–2016, the estimated annual probability of diagnosis within 1 year of HIV acquisition in New York City was 43.0% [95% confidence interval (CI): 37.9–48.2%), 42.5% (95% CI: 36.8--48.3%), 42.8% (95% CI: 36.3--49.2%), 42.9% (95% CI: 35.4--50.3%), and 42.2% (95% CI: 33.1--51.2%), respectively. Conclusion: National and local health jurisdictions should consider using this new outcome indicator, the probability of diagnosis within 1 year of HIV acquisition, to monitor their progress in early HIV diagnosis. Abstract : Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text