Dempster–Shafer Theory applications in post-seismic structural damage and social vulnerability assessment. Issue 4 (3rd July 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ballent, Wendy; Corotis, Ross B.; Torres-Machi, Cristina
• Is Part Of: Sustainable and resilient infrastructure. Volume 5:Issue 4(2020)
• Page Start: 201
• Page End: 213
• Publication Date: 2020-07-03
• Subjects: Dempster–Shafer theory -- Evidence theory -- experts -- seismic damage assessment -- social vulnerability; Sustainable development -- Periodicals; Infrastructure (Economics) -- Periodicals; Hazard mitigation -- Periodicals; Structural analysis (Engineering) -- Periodicals; 624.17
• DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2019.1583488
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2378-9689

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The inherent uncertainty involved in assessments of both post-seismic structural damage and the social vulnerability of those affected motivates the search for a suitable analysis framework. As these risk assessments are subjective in nature and require expert opinion, many common methods such as probability may not provide the most natural mathematical structure. This paper explores how Dempster–Shafer Theory might be used in these applications, as this theory allows the combination of multiple expert beliefs while considering such uncertainties. A post-seismic structural damage assessment survey was used to evaluate combined belief outputs compared to probability outputs. The results computed using the Dempster–Shafer Theory were more consistent than probability when compared to the actual damage of the images shown in the survey. This suggests that Dempster–Shafer Theory may be a suitable framework to represent ignorance and evidence-based assessments.