Estimation of municipal waste generation of Turkey using socio-economic indicators by Bayesian optimization tuned Gaussian process regression. Issue 8 (August 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ceylan, Zeynep
• Is Part Of: Waste management & research. Volume 38:Issue 8(2020:Aug.)
• Page Start: 840
• Page End: 850
• Publication Date: 2020-08
• Subjects: Bayesian optimization -- forecasting -- Gaussian process regression -- hyperparameter optimization -- municipal solid waste; Factory and trade waste -- Periodicals; Refuse and refuse disposal -- Periodicals; Municipal engineering -- Periodicals; Déchets industriels -- Périodiques; Déchets -- Élimination -- Périodiques; Génie urbain -- Périodiques; 628
• DOI: 10.1177/0734242X20906877
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0734-242X

Abstract

Accurate estimation of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation has become a crucial task in decision-making processes for the MSW planning and management systems. In this study, the Gaussian process regression (GPR) model tuned by Bayesian optimization was used to forecast the MSW generation of Turkey. The Bayesian optimization method, which can efficiently optimize the hyperparameters of kernel functions in the machine learning algorithms, was applied to reduce the computation redundancy and enhance the estimation performance of the models. Four socio-economic indicators such as population, gross domestic product per capita, inflation rate, and the unemployment rate were used as input variables. The performance of the Bayesian GPR (BGPR) model was compared with the multiple linear regression (MLR) and Bayesian support vector regression (BSVR) models. Different performance measures such as mean absolute deviation (MAD), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R 2 ) values were used to evaluate the performance of the models. The exponential-GPR model tuned by Bayesian optimization showed superior performance with minimum MAD (0.0182), RMSE (0.0203), and high R 2 (0.9914) values in the training phase and minimum MAD (0.0342), RMSE (0.0463), and high R 2 (0.9841) values in the testing phase. The results of this study can help decision-makers to be aware of social-economic factors associated with waste management and ensure optimal usage of their resources in future planning.