Spatially-explicit modeling and intensity analysis of China's land use change 2000–2050. (1st June 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Feng, Yongjiu; Lei, Zhenkun; Tong, Xiaohua; Gao, Chen; Chen, Shurui; Wang, Jiafeng; Wang, Siqin
• Is Part Of: Journal of environmental management. Volume 263(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-06-01
• Subjects: Land use transition -- GlobeLand30 -- LandCA -- Scenario projection -- Urban expansion; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; Environmental management -- Periodicals; Environment -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Periodicals; 363.705
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110407
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4797

Abstract

Abstract: Land use change affected by wide ranges of human activities is a key driver of global climate change. In the last three decades, China has experienced unprecedented land use change accompanied by increasing environmental problems. There is a pressing need to project and analyze long-term land use scenarios that are critical for land use planning and policymaking. Using GlobeLand30 data, we examined China's land use change from 2000 to 2010, and developed a novel LandCA model for scenario projections from 2020 to 2050. The observed and projected land use change (2000–2050) was analyzed in terms of the interval, category, and transition levels. Our findings show that land Exchange intensity is more than 3 times greater than land Quantity intensity from 2000 to 2050, and the overall rate of land use change will decelerate from 2010 to 2050. During 2000–2010, the loss of built-up land to other categories was 12.7% while the gain was 32.5%, with a growth rate 3.4 times larger than that during 2010–2050. The total amount of cultivated land continuously decreases but will not violate the Chinese " Cultivated Land Red-Line Restriction " by 2050. We speculate that the government's goal of 26% forest cover by 2050 may not be achieved, as a result of strict land use policies preventing the transformation from cultivated land to forests. This study contributes to new evaluations of long-term land use change in China for the government to adjust policies and regulations for sustainable development. Highlights: We modeled China's land use change during 2000–2050. Exchange intensity is more than 3 times of the quantity intensity during 2000–2050. The total cultivated area by 2050 will not violate the government's restriction. The goal of 26% forest coverage by 2050 may not be achieved; and. The built-up area growth rate during 2000–2010 is 3.4 times that from 2010 to 2050.