Current energy policies and possible transition scenarios adopting renewable energy: A case study for Bangladesh. (August 2020) - Gulagi, Ashish
Abstract: This study analyses energy transition pathways for the case of Bangladesh. The LUT Energy System Transition model, a high temporal - spatial resolution linear optimisation tool, is used to model an energy system transition from 2015 to 2050 for the case of Bangladesh. Four scenarios aimed at analysing different energy policies were created in order to replicate the present and alternative renewable energy based policies, with and without greenhouse gas emissions costs. The results show that emissions costs accelerate the transition towards a fully renewable energy system, however, removing these costs does not significantly affect the energy system, as renewables would still contribute 94% of the electricity generation by 2050. The Current Policy Scenario increases electricity and greenhouse gas emissions costs significantly especially, starting in 2025. The results indicate that countries like Bangladesh are prone to serious and complicated national risks that lead to several vulnerabilities like high electricity costs, increase in greenhouse gas emissions, energy insecurity and poor political trust, if present energy policies are pursued. However, focusing on indigenous renewable resources could help mitigate this vulnerability and bring about socioeconomic benefits. Highlights: Current energy policy of Bangladesh leads to higher power cost and GHG emissions. Best policy scenarios are the least cost by 2050 for Bangladesh. GHG emissions cost expedite transition towards 100% renewable energy system by 2050. Without GHG emissions cost the energy generation is still 94% renewable in 2050. Solar energy and batteries form the backbone of a fully renewable energy system.