The impact of alternative nutrient kinetics and computational grid size on model predicted primary production and hypoxic area in the northern Gulf of Mexico. (April 2020) - Pauer, James J.
Abstract: Model structure uncertainty is seldom calculated because of the difficulty and time required to perform such analyses. Here we explore how a coastal model using the Monod versus Droop formulations and a 6 km × 6 km versus 2 km × 2 km computational grid size predict primary production and hypoxic area in the Gulf of Mexico. Results from these models were compared to each other and to observations, and sensitivity analyses were performed. The different models fit the observations almost equally well. The 6k-model calculated higher rates of production and settling, and especially a larger hypoxic area, in comparison to the 2k-model. The Monod-based model calculated higher production, especially close to the river delta regions, but smaller summer hypoxic area, than the model using the Droop formulation. The Monod-based model was almost twice as sensitive to changes in nutrient loads in comparison to the Droop model, which can have management implications. Highlights: The impact of alternative model structures on accuracy and uncertainty of Gulf of Mexico model predictions was investigated. Predicted primary production and hypoxic area are influenced by the nutrient limitation formulation and grid size used. Complex models have the potential to realistically represent the system, but evaluating the model performance can be difficult.