Ionospheric Detection of Explosive Events. (11th February 2019) - Huang, C. Y.
Abstract: The ionospheric response to explosions which occur at or below the Earth's surface has been noted since the first detonations of nuclear devices during the early period of aboveground testing. Acoustic gravity waves and traveling ionospheric disturbances were detected in association with test explosions carried out by the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics in Novaya Zemlya in 1961. While research in this area has continued, the standards accepted by the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty for detection and confirmation of nuclear explosions have been based on (1) seismic, (2) hydroacoustic, (3) infrasound, and (4) radionuclide monitoring from ground detectors. We suggest that ionospheric sensing offers a complementary methodology that may allow for robust confirmation of explosive events. One method of ionospheric monitoring of explosive events is analysis of total electron content (TEC), available by processing data from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers distributed globally on land masses. Traveling ionospheric disturbances observed by their signature in TEC have been used to detect and confirm mine collapses, mine blasts, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and meteorite strikes as well as underground nuclear tests. While an integrated measurement like TEC is not as sensitive to small‐amplitude density perturbations as other methods, the existence of large networks of continuously operating GNSS stations makes this an intriguing new monitoring asset. We report on the current capabilities for detection of explosions via the ionosphere, the outstanding challenges, and prospects for future developments that have potential to augment the current standards for detection and confirmation of nuclear detonations. By leveraging the worldwide network of GNSS receivers, robust confirmation of impulsive events is possible. This methodology complements existing technologies approved by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty. The article outlines background theory, new approaches to monitoring of explosions, and challenges that remain to be addressed. Key Points: Detection of aboveground and belowground explosive events is possible by ionospheric monitoring Methodology leverages global GNSS availability, but attribution and validation are outstanding challenges Ionospheric observations coupled with numerical simulations can add robust confirmation to traditional methods of detection