Simulation of key interventions for seasonal influenza outbreak control at school in Changsha, China. Issue 1 (January 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Chen, Tianmu; Zhao, Bin; Liu, Ruchun; Zhang, Xixing; Xie, Zhi; Chen, Shuilian
• Is Part Of: Journal of international medical research. Volume 48:Issue 1(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-01
• Subjects: Seasonal influenza -- outbreak -- mathematical model -- isolation -- effectiveness; Medicine -- Periodicals; Pharmacology -- Periodicals; 610.5
• DOI: 10.1177/0300060518764268
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0300-0605

Abstract

Objective: To use a mathematical model to simulate an influenza outbreak in a school in order to assess the effectiveness of isolation (Iso), antiviral therapeutics, antiviral prophylactics (P), vaccination prior to the outbreak, and school closure (for 1 [S1w], 2 or 3 weeks). Methods: This study developed a susceptible–exposed–infectious/asymptomatic–recovered model to estimate the effectiveness of commonly used interventions for seasonal influenza outbreaks in school. Results: The most effective single-intervention strategy was isolation with a total attack rate of 1.99% and an outbreak duration of 30 days. The additional effectiveness of antiviral therapeutics and prophylactics and vaccination (prior to the outbreak) strategies were not obvious. Although Iso+P, P+Iso+S1w, four-, and five-combined intervention strategies had commendable effectiveness, total attack rate decreased only slightly, and outbreak duration was shortened by 9 days maximum, compared with the single-intervention isolation strategy. School closure for 1, 2 or 3 weeks was futile or even counterproductive. Conclusion: Isolation, as a single intervention, was the most effective in terms of reducing the total attack rate and the duration of the outbreak.