Trade and trade-offs: Shipping in changing climates. (August 2019)
- Record Type:
- Journal Article
- Title:
- Trade and trade-offs: Shipping in changing climates. (August 2019)
- Main Title:
- Trade and trade-offs: Shipping in changing climates
- Authors:
- Walsh, Conor
Lazarou, Nicholas-Joseph
Traut, Michael
Price, James
Raucci, Carlo
Sharmina, Maria
Agnolucci, Paolo
Mander, Sarah
Gilbert, Paul
Anderson, Kevin
Larkin, Alice
Smith, Tristan - Abstract:
- Abstract: This paper addresses the evolution of maritime transport demand in response to global climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. The complexity of the global shipping system makes predicting volumes and patterns of long-term future international maritime trade a challenging task which is best explored by building scenarios rather than 'precise' forecasts. We present four contrasting scenarios of international maritime trade out to 2050, available in high resolution in terms of the dimensions studied (regions, countries, commodities, decades), which are consistent with high and low levels of global CO2 mitigation and associated climate impacts. The scenarios project trade increasing to between two and four times the 2010 value by 2050. Scenarios characterised by low temperature increases and material intensity lead to the lower bound trade increase with high trade growth in bioenergy commodities. Unfettered production growth across countries, high temperature increases and material intensity lead to a quadrupling of trade across energy, containerised, dry and wet commodities. The estimated range is lower than those in existing scenarios and forecasts in which globalisation is assumed to continue apace. The scenarios which project the highest growth presupposes both limited decarbonisation (in contrast to the Paris Agreement) and continued growth in expanding markets. The scenarios therefore become a valuable policy and decision-making tool to addressAbstract: This paper addresses the evolution of maritime transport demand in response to global climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. The complexity of the global shipping system makes predicting volumes and patterns of long-term future international maritime trade a challenging task which is best explored by building scenarios rather than 'precise' forecasts. We present four contrasting scenarios of international maritime trade out to 2050, available in high resolution in terms of the dimensions studied (regions, countries, commodities, decades), which are consistent with high and low levels of global CO2 mitigation and associated climate impacts. The scenarios project trade increasing to between two and four times the 2010 value by 2050. Scenarios characterised by low temperature increases and material intensity lead to the lower bound trade increase with high trade growth in bioenergy commodities. Unfettered production growth across countries, high temperature increases and material intensity lead to a quadrupling of trade across energy, containerised, dry and wet commodities. The estimated range is lower than those in existing scenarios and forecasts in which globalisation is assumed to continue apace. The scenarios which project the highest growth presupposes both limited decarbonisation (in contrast to the Paris Agreement) and continued growth in expanding markets. The scenarios therefore become a valuable policy and decision-making tool to address technological and operational change required of the shipping sector, if it is to deliver mitigation in line with the Paris Agreement. … (more)
- Is Part Of:
- Marine policy. Volume 106(2019)
- Journal:
- Marine policy
- Issue:
- Volume 106(2019)
- Issue Display:
- Volume 106, Issue 2019 (2019)
- Year:
- 2019
- Volume:
- 106
- Issue:
- 2019
- Issue Sort Value:
- 2019-0106-2019-0000
- Page Start:
- Page End:
- Publication Date:
- 2019-08
- Subjects:
- Marine resources -- Economic aspects -- Periodicals
Fisheries -- Periodicals
Ressources marines -- Aspect économique -- Périodiques
Pêches -- Périodiques
Fisheries
Marine resources -- Economic aspects
Periodicals
333.916405 - Journal URLs:
- http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0308597X ↗
http://www.elsevier.com/journals ↗ - DOI:
- 10.1016/j.marpol.2019.103537 ↗
- Languages:
- English
- ISSNs:
- 0308-597X
- Deposit Type:
- Legaldeposit
- View Content:
- Available online (eLD content is only available in our Reading Rooms) ↗
- Physical Locations:
- British Library DSC - 5377.250000
British Library DSC - BLDSS-3PM
British Library HMNTS - ELD Digital store - Ingest File:
- 13035.xml