The Influence of Interannual Climate Variability on Regional Violent Crime Rates in the United States. Issue 11 (21st November 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Harp, Ryan D.; Karnauskas, Kristopher B.
• Is Part Of: GeoHealth. Volume 2:Issue 11(2018)
• Page Start: 356
• Page End: 369
• Publication Date: 2018-11-21
• Subjects: climate -- crime -- violent -- impacts -- health -- regional; Environmental health -- Periodicals; Electronic journals; Periodicals; 616.98
• DOI: 10.1029/2018GH000152
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2471-1403

Abstract

Abstract: While the impact of climate on regional geopolitical stability and large‐scale conflict has garnered increased visibility in recent years, the effects of climate variability on interpersonal violent crime have received only limited scientific attention. Though earlier studies have established a modest correlation between temperature and violent crime, the underlying seasonality in both variables was often not controlled for and spatial heterogeneity of the statistical relationships has largely been overlooked. Here a method of spatial aggregation is applied to the United States, enabling a systematic investigation into the observed relationships between large‐scale climate variability and regionally aggregated crime rates. This novel approach allows for differentiation between the effects of two previously proposed mechanisms linking climate and violent crime, the Routine Activities Theory and Temperature‐Aggression Hypothesis. Results indicate large and statistically significant positive correlations between the interannual variability of wintertime air temperature and both violent and property crime rates, with negligible correlations emerging from summertime data. Results strongly support the Routine Activities Theory linking climate and violent crime, with climate variability explaining well over a third of the variance of wintertime violent crime in several broad regions of the United States. Finally, results motivate the development of observationally constrained empirical models and their potential application to seasonal and potentially longer‐term forecasts. Plain Language Summary: Higher wintertime temperatures lead to higher crime rates across several broad regions of the United States. We combined more than 30 years of climate and crime data from five U.S. regions with similar climate and found a very strong relationship between temperature and both violent and property crime, particularly in the winter. That milder winters–when people are more apt to be out and about compared to harsh winters–see that higher levels of crime provides support to a theory that simply increasing the number of interactions between people is likely the primary driver of this climate‐crime connection. Key Points: The observed covariability between climate and crime rates was analyzed; regional and monthly averaging is critical for climate signal detection Interannual regional violent crime rates are influenced by climate variability; strongest correlations exist with wintertime temperatures Findings support Routine Activities Theory as the primary causal mechanism of this relationship linking climate and violent crime