Estimates of Present and Future Asthma Emergency Department Visits Associated With Exposure to Oak, Birch, and Grass Pollen in the United States. Issue 1 (21st January 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Neumann, James E.; Anenberg, Susan C.; Weinberger, Kate R.; Amend, Meredith; Gulati, Sahil; Crimmins, Allison; Roman, Henry; Fann, Neal; Kinney, Patrick L.
• Is Part Of: GeoHealth. Volume 3:Issue 1(2019)
• Page Start: 11
• Page End: 27
• Publication Date: 2019-01-21
• Subjects: aeroallergens -- asthma; Environmental health -- Periodicals; Electronic journals; Periodicals; 616.98
• DOI: 10.1029/2018GH000153
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2471-1403

Abstract

Abstract: Pollen is an important environmental cause of allergic asthma episodes. Prior work has established a proof of concept for assessing projected climate change impacts on future oak pollen exposure and associated health impacts. This paper uses additional monitor data and epidemiologic functions to extend prior analyses, reporting new estimates of the current and projected future health burden of oak, birch, and grass pollen across the contiguous United States. Our results suggest that tree pollen in the spring currently accounts for between 25, 000 and 50, 000 pollen‐related asthma emergency department (ED) visits annually (95% confidence interval: 14, 000 to 100, 000), roughly two thirds of which occur among people under age 18. Grass pollen in the summer season currently accounts for less than 10, 000 cases annually (95% confidence interval: 4, 000 to 16, 000). Compared to a baseline with 21st century population growth but constant pollen, future temperature and precipitation show an increase in ED visits of 14% in 2090 for a higher greenhouse gas emissions scenario, but only 8% for a moderate emissions scenario, reflecting projected increases in pollen season length. Grass pollen, which is more sensitive to changes in climatic conditions, is a primary contributor to future ED visits, with the largest effects in the Northeast, Midwest, and Southern Great Plains regions. More complete assessment of the current and future health burden of pollen is limited by the availability of data on pollen types (e.g., ragweed), other health effects (e.g., other respiratory disease), and economic consequences (e.g., medication costs). Key Points: We link pollen, climate, and epidemiological data to estimate the health burden of oak, birch, and grass pollen across the contiguous United States We found that 35, 000 to 60, 000 asthma emergency department visits (two thirds of these among children) may be linked with pollen each year We project that future climate changes could increase pollen‐related asthma emergency department visits by 14% in 2090