Projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the Philippines from multiple dynamical downscaling models. (1st October 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Villafuerte, Marcelino Q.; Macadam, Ian; Daron, Joseph; Katzfey, Jack; Cinco, Thelma A.; Ares, Emma D.; Jones, Richard G.
• Is Part Of: International journal of climatology. Volume 40:Number 3(2020)
• Page Start: 1784
• Page End: 1804
• Publication Date: 2019-10-01
• Subjects: climate change -- climate projections -- multi‐model ensemble -- the Philippines; Climatology -- Periodicals; Climat -- Périodiques; Climatologie -- Périodiques; 551.605
• DOI: 10.1002/joc.6301
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0899-8418

Abstract

Abstract: To help meet increasing demands for high‐resolution climate change projections in the Philippines, this study provides the results of multiple dynamically downscaled climate model simulations for projected changes in rainfall and temperature over the country by the mid‐21st century (2036–2065) relative to the baseline period (1971–2000), under the RCP8.5 scenario. The model‐simulated seasonal means of temperature, rainfall, and low‐level wind patterns were first compared with observations during the baseline period. Comparisons made between the model‐derived and APHRODITE observation‐based gridded temperature and rainfall data indicate that the dynamically downscaled simulations provide an overall improvement from their driving global climate models in capturing the spatial patterns of rainfall over the country, and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the country's mean temperature. Future climate projections show that the country's climate is expected to become warmer by the mid‐21st century, with a multi‐model ensemble mean increase of 1.2 to 1.9°C, relative to the baseline period, projected for many parts of the country and across most seasons. Slightly higher increases are projected during the country's hottest season, March–April–May. However, there are large differences in the models' projected rainfall changes by the mid‐21st century across seasons and regions. For most parts of the country, the multi‐model ensemble includes simulations that show increases and simulations that show decreases in rainfall. Nevertheless, there is a tendency of model projections towards wetter conditions over northern and central sections of the country (particularly in the December–January–February season) and drier conditions in the southern region of the country in almost all seasons. The results demonstrate the need for communities in the Philippines to adapt to a future warmer climate and prepare for a range of possible future changes in rainfall and temperature. Abstract : The climate processes involved in an archipelagic country like the Philippines, with complex topography, is unlikely to be well‐represented in the GCMs. Dynamical downscaling helps provide process‐based representations of the interactions between local topography and the atmosphere at finer spatial scales. Here, we demonstrate the improvements brought by dynamical downscaling as similarly shown in the figure. Such better representation of the country's climate increased our confidence in providing high‐resolution future climate change projections for the country.