Estimation of abatement potentials and costs of air pollution emissions in China. (15th April 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhang, Fenfen; Xing, Jia; Zhou, Yang; Wang, Shuxiao; Zhao, Bin; Zheng, Haotian; Zhao, Xiao; Chang, Huanzhen; Jang, Carey; Zhu, Yun; Hao, Jiming
• Is Part Of: Journal of environmental management. Volume 260(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-04-15
• Subjects: Cost estimation -- Abatement potential -- End-of-pipe control measures -- Multiple pollutants -- Multiple sectors -- Marginal abatement cost; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; Environmental management -- Periodicals; Environment -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Periodicals; 363.705
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2020.110069
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4797

Abstract

Abstract: Understanding the air pollution emission abatement potential and associated control cost is a prerequisite to design cost efficient control policies. In this study, a linear programming algorithm model, International Control Cost Estimate Tool, was updated with cost data for applications of 56 types of end-of-pipe technologies and five types of renewable energy in 10 major sectors namely power generation, industry combustion, cement production, iron and steel production, other industry processes, domestic combustion, transportation, solvent use, livestock rearing, and fertilizer use. The updated model was implemented to estimate the abatement potential and marginal cost of multiple pollutants in China. The total maximum abatement potentials of sulfur dioxide (SO2 ), nitrogen oxides (NOx ), primary particulate matter (PM2.5 ), non-volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), and ammonia (NH3 ) in China were estimated to be 19.2, 20.8, 9.1, 17.2 and 8.6 Mt, respectively, which accounted for 89.7%, 89.9%, 94.6%, 74.0%, and 80.2% of their total emissions in 2014, respectively. The associated control cost of such reductions was estimated as 92.5, 469.7, 75.7, 449.0, and 361.8 billion CNY in SO2, NOx, primary PM2.5, NMVOCs and NH3, respectively. Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Zhejiang, and Guangdong provinces exhibited large abatement potentials for all pollutants. Provincial disparity analysis shows that high GDP regions tend to have higher reduction potential and total abatement costs. End-of-pipe technologies tended be a cost-efficient way to control pollution in industries processes (i.e., cement plants, iron and steel plants, lime production, building ceramic production, glass and brick production), whereas such technologies were less cost-effective in fossil fuel-related sectors (i.e., power plants, industry combustion, domestic combustion, and transportation) compared with renewable energy. The abatement potentials and marginal abatement cost curves developed in this study can further be used as a crucial component in an integrated model to design optimized cost-efficient control policies. Highlights: Over half of pollutant emissions could be reduced by end-of-pipe control measures. Application of renewable energies could further reduce the pollutants up to 70–90%. Renewable energy can be an alternative to end-of-pipe measures in the future. Both non-volatile organic compounds and ammonia have considerable abatement potential in China. Megacities have high unit abated costs because of the limited potential reduction.