A Bayesian spatial shared component model for identifying crime-general and crime-specific hotspots. Issue 1 (2nd January 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Law, Jane; Quick, Matthew; Jadavji, Afraaz
• Is Part Of: Annals of GIS. Volume 26:Issue 1(2020)
• Page Start: 65
• Page End: 79
• Publication Date: 2020-01-02
• Subjects: crime hotspot -- spatial pattern -- Bayesian modelling -- multivariate -- shared component; Geographic information systems -- Periodicals; Periodicals; 910.285
• DOI: 10.1080/19475683.2020.1720290
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1947-5683

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The spatial patterning of crime hotspots provides place-based information for the design, allocation, and implementation of crime prevention policies and programmes. However, most spatial hotspot identification methods are univariate, analyse a single crime type, and do not consider if hotspots are shared amongst multiple crime types. This study applies a Bayesian spatial shared component model to identify crime-general and crime-specific hotspots for violent crime and property crime at the small-area scale. The spatial shared component model jointly analyzes both violent crime and property crime and separates the area-specific risks of each crime type into one shared component, which captures the underlying crime-general spatial pattern common to both crime types, and one type-specific component, which captures the crime-specific spatial pattern that diverges from the shared pattern. Crime-general and crime-specific hotspots are classified based on the posterior probability estimates of the shared and type-specific components, respectively. Results show that the crime-general pattern explains approximately 81% of the total variation of violent crime and 70% of the total variation of property crime. Crime-general hotspots are found to be more frequent than crime-specific hotspots, and property crime-specific hotspots are more frequent than violent crime-specific hotspots. Crime-general and crime-specific hotspots are areas that may be targeted with comprehensive initiatives designed for multiple crime types or specialized initiatives designed for a single crime type, respectively.