Simulations of COVID-19 spread by spatial agent-based model and ordinary differential equations. (7th May 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bai, Shan
• Is Part Of: International journal of simulation and process modelling. Volume 15:Number 3(2020)
• Page Start: 268
• Page End: 277
• Publication Date: 2020-05-07
• Subjects: agent-based model -- ordinary differential equation -- epidemic model -- COVID-19; Management -- Computer simulation -- Periodicals; Mathematical models -- Periodicals; Operations research -- Periodicals; Simulation methods -- Periodicals; 003.05
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1740-2123

Abstract

The COVID-19 outbreak is currently the biggest public health issue in the world. In this paper, the epidemic spread is modelled via two structurally different approaches, a system of first-order ordinary differential equations (ODEs) and spatial agent-based model (ABM). Specific intervention strategies are introduced and the effectiveness of the strategies can be assessed by comparing the results with/without these strategies. The simulation results are qualitatively affected by different parameter settings of the ODEs-based model; hence precision of input parameters characterising the spread is of great importance. The implementation of spatial ABM brings novel features to the epidemics modelling: new states being easily incorporated; the parameter illustrating the moving willingness of people; and sub-models for hospital beds to reflect demands of medical resources. Our results suggest that the flexible characteristics of ABM render it a useful addition to the tool set of epidemics simulation models so as to figure out new effective strategies.