Statistical trend tests for resilience of power systems. (September 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Shen, Lijuan; Cassottana, Beatrice; Tang, Loon Ching
• Is Part Of: Reliability engineering & system safety. Volume 177(2018)
• Page Start: 138
• Page End: 147
• Publication Date: 2018-09
• Subjects: Trend test -- Resilience -- Frequency of occurrence -- Performance loss -- Recovery time; Reliability (Engineering) -- Periodicals; System safety -- Periodicals; Industrial safety -- Periodicals; Fiabilité -- Périodiques; Sécurité des systèmes -- Périodiques; Sécurité du travail -- Périodiques; 620.00452
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2018.05.006
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0951-8320

Abstract

Highlights: We conduct an empirical evaluation on the resilience of the U.S. power grid. Trends in resilience are tested based on the database of Electric Disturbance Events. A combined resilience measure is defined and computed from the data. A modified Lewis–Robinson test is developed for trend detection. The result shows that the resilience in the NPCC region has become better. Abstract: Through applications of relevant trend tests in the context of resilience analysis, this study conducts an empirical evaluation on the resilience of the U.S. power grid based on the database of the Electric Disturbance Events. To assess trends in systems resilience, we look into three key components associated with each black-out and recovery of power systems, i.e., the time between disruptions, the performance loss of each disruption and the time needed for recovery. We present a combined measure that takes into account all the three components. A modified Lewis–Robinson test is then developed for trend detection in this combined measure. To support the trend analysis of this combined measure, we further perform trend test for the performance loss and the recovery time. It is found that, among various North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) regions of the U.S. power grid, the resilience in the Northeast Power Coordinating Council (NPCC) region has become better. Empirical evidence from the government financial support is used to substantiate these statistical findings.