Evaluating Climate Sensitivity to CO2 Across Earth's History. Issue 21 (6th November 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Wolf, E. T.; Haqq‐Misra, J.; Toon, O. B.
• Is Part Of: Journal of geophysical research. Volume 123:Issue 21(2018)
• Page Start: 11, 861
• Page End: 11, 874
• Publication Date: 2018-11-06
• Subjects: climate sensitivity -- paleoclimate -- CO2 -- habitability; Atmospheric physics -- Periodicals; Geophysics -- Periodicals; 551.5
• DOI: 10.1029/2018JD029262
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2169-897X

Abstract

Abstract: CO2 ‐driven changes to climate have occurred during many epochs of Earth's history when the solar insolation, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and surface temperature of the planet were all significantly different than today. Each of these aspects affects the implied radiative forcings, climate feedbacks, and resultant changes in global mean surface temperature. Here we use a three‐dimensional climate system model to study the effects of increasing CO2 on Earth's climate, across many orders of magnitude of variation, and under solar inputs relevant for paleo, present, and future Earth scenarios. We find that the change in global mean surface temperature from doubling CO2 (i.e., the equilibrium climate sensitivity) may vary between 2.6 and 21.6 K over the course of Earth's history. In agreement with previous studies, we find that the adjusted radiative forcing from doubling CO2 increases at high concentrations up to about 1.5 bars partial pressure, generally resulting in larger changes in the surface temperature. We also find that the cloud albedo feedback causes an abrupt transition in climate for warming atmospheres that depends both on the mean surface temperature and the total solar insolation. Climate sensitivity to atmospheric CO2 has probably varied considerably across Earth's history. Plain Language Summary: It is evident that climate sensitivity to changing CO2 varies if the amount of solar energy received by Earth is different, if the starting CO2 amount is different, or if the mean temperature of the planet is significantly different. Key Points: Climate sensitivity to CO2 varied significantly across Earth's history The adjusted radiative forcing from CO2 increases at high concentrations Cloud albedo feedback cause an abrupt transition in climate for warming atmospheres