Representing uncertainty in natural hazard risk assessment with Dempster Shafer (Evidence) theory. Issue 4 (2nd October 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ballent, Wendy; Corotis, Ross B; Torres-Machi, Cristina
• Is Part Of: Sustainable and resilient infrastructure. Volume 4:Issue 4(2019)
• Page Start: 137
• Page End: 151
• Publication Date: 2019-10-02
• Subjects: Beliefs -- Dempster-Shafer theory -- evidence theory -- multiple experts -- natural hazards; Sustainable development -- Periodicals; Infrastructure (Economics) -- Periodicals; Hazard mitigation -- Periodicals; Structural analysis (Engineering) -- Periodicals; 624.17
• DOI: 10.1080/23789689.2018.1542213
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2378-9689

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Mathematical frameworks are developed to address the representation of inherent uncertainties in the assessment of natural hazard risk for the built environment. Lack of exploration of such theories has inhibited their use for well-suited applications for expert evidence in the field of sustainable and resilient infrastructure. One such framework, Dempster-Shafer Theory, allows the combination of multiple expert beliefs in cases such as seismic hazards, for which structural vulnerability and structural damage are evaluated in a case-by-case scenario, often utilizing subjective assessments. This research performs a rigorous exploration to determine the behavior and trends, including a mathematical proof of asymptotic behavior, in an attempt to both (a) understand how this framework handles confidence, ignorance, and combined beliefs, and (b) encourage the use of more natural frameworks in cases that involve uncertainty. Results indicate that probability may not be the most natural framework in which to quantitatively incorporate the involved uncertainty.