Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling. Issue 12 (December 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar; Luderer, Gunnar
• Is Part Of: Nature energy. Volume 2: Issue 12(2017)
• Page Start: 939
• Page End: 945
• Publication Date: 2017-12
• Subjects: Power resources -- Periodicals; Energy development -- Periodicals; Renewable energy sources -- Periodicals; Energy policy -- Periodicals; Electric power systems -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1038/s41560-017-0032-9
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2058-7546

Abstract

Abstract Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy–economy–land-use–climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78–110 gCO2 eq kWh−1, compared with 3.5–12 gCO2 eq kWh−1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (∼100 gCO2 eq kWh−1 ), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios. All energy generation technologies emit greenhouse gases during their life cycle as a result of construction and operation. Pehl et al. integrate life-cycle assessment and energy modelling to analyse the emissions contributions of different technologies across their lifespan in future low-carbon power systems.