When Does Terror Induce a State of Emergency? And What Are the Effects?. (April 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bjørnskov, Christian; Voigt, Stefan
• Is Part Of: Journal of conflict resolution. Volume 64:Number 4(2020)
• Page Start: 579
• Page End: 613
• Publication Date: 2020-04
• Subjects: terrorism -- state of emergency -- constitutional emergency provisions -- état de siege -- positive constitutional economics; War and society -- Periodicals; Peace -- Periodicals; Arbitration (International law) -- Periodicals; 327.16
• DOI: 10.1177/0022002719865994
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0022-0027

Abstract

The relationship between terrorist activities and states of emergency has never been explored in a cross-country perspective. This article is a first step to change that. Given that a terror act has been committed, what are the factors that lead governments to declare a state of emergency (SOE)—or refrain from declaring it? And given that a SOE has been declared, what are the effects thereof? On the basis of seventy-nine countries all having Western-style constitutions, we find that more terrorist incidents increase the likelihood of a SOE. Interestingly, emergencies are less likely to be declared in election years, supposedly because governments believe them to be unpopular. Once a SOE is declared, it generally leads to substantially more government repression. Finally, countries already under a SOE are more likely to suffer from additional terror attacks, challenging the effectiveness of states of emergency.