Analysing past land use land cover change and CA-Markov-based future modelling in the Middle Suluh Valley, Northern Ethiopia. Issue 3 (17th February 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hishe, Solomon; Bewket, Woldeamlak; Nyssen, Jan; Lyimo, James
• Is Part Of: Geocarto international. Volume 35:Issue 3(2020)
• Page Start: 225
• Page End: 255
• Publication Date: 2020-02-17
• Subjects: Land use land cover -- CA-Markov -- simulation -- Middle Suluh Valley -- Ethiopia; Remote sensing -- Periodicals; Geographic information systems -- Periodicals; Geology -- Periodicals; Cartography -- Periodicals; 621.3678
• DOI: 10.1080/10106049.2018.1516241
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1010-6049

Abstract

Abstract: This paper evaluates the past land use land cover (LULC) change and simulates the future change using Landsat images in northern Ethiopia. A supervised classification method with a maximum likelihood algorithm was employed to detect the past changes using ENVI 5.3 software. Moreover, a Cellular Automata (CA)-Makrov model was used to simulate from 2015 to 2030. In the period 1985–2015, the statistical result shows an increase of agricultural land (AL) by 32.3 km 2 (19.2%) and settlement (ST) by 51.6 km 2 (345.2%). Most of the increases were gained from shrub-bush land (SBL) which showed a decline of 61.8 km 2 (49.4%). However, in the simulation model of 2030, an increase of SBL (47.08 km 2 ) and grass land by 12.38 km 2 was predicted. The consideration of socioeconomic and biophysical factors in the simulation model results different trend compare to the historical LULC change that support to landuse managers and planners.