Multivariate spatiotemporal modeling of drug- and alcohol-poisoning deaths in New York City, 2009–2014. (February 2020)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Ransome, Yusuf; Subramanian, S.V.; Duncan, Dustin T.; Vlahov, Daivid; Warren, Joshua
• Is Part Of: Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology. Volume 32(2020)
• Publication Date: 2020-02
• Subjects: Alcohol -- Drug overdose -- Multivariate -- Poverty -- Spatiotemporal; Epidemiology -- Statistical methods -- Periodicals; Epidemiology -- Periodicals; 614.4072
• DOI: 10.1016/j.sste.2019.100306
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1877-5845

Abstract

Abstract: Drug- and alcohol-poisoning deaths remain current public health problems. Studies to date have typically focused on individual-level predictors of drug overdose deaths, and there remains a limited understanding of the spatiotemporal patterns and predictors of the joint outcomes. We use a hierarchical Bayesian spatiotemporal multivariate Poisson regression model on data from ( N = 167) ZIP-codes between 2009 and 2014 in New York City to examine the spatiotemporal patterns of the joint occurrence of drug (opioids) and alcohol-poisoning deaths, and the covariates associated with each outcome. Results indicate that rates of both outcomes were highly positively correlated across ZIP-codes (cross-correlation: 0.57, 95% credible interval (CrI): 0.29, 0.77). ZIP-codes with a higher prevalence of heavy drinking had higher alcohol-poisoning deaths (relative risk (RR):1.63, 95% CrI: 1.26, 2.05) and drug-poisoning deaths (RR: 1.29, 95% CrI: 1.03, 1.59). These spatial patterns may guide public health planners to target specific areas to address these co-occurring epidemics.