Examining rural Sahelian out-migration in the context of climate change: An analysis of the linkages between rainfall and out-migration in two Malian villages from 1981 to 2009. (September 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Grace, Kathryn; Hertrich, Véronique; Singare, Djeneba; Husak, Greg
• Is Part Of: World development. Volume 109(2018)
• Page Start: 187
• Page End: 196
• Publication Date: 2018-09
• Subjects: Mali -- Out-migration -- Rainfall -- Food security; Economic history -- 1990- -- Periodicals; Economic assistance -- Developing countries -- Periodicals; 330.9
• DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2018.04.009
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0305-750X

Abstract

Highlights: Out-migration is a common practice among men and women in two Malian villages. Rainfall index reflecting within-season variability captures important seasonal variation and annual change. A season with poor rainfall is not correlated to increased levels of out-migration but may impact duration or destination of out-migration. Abstract: Subsistence farmers in Sahelian Africa are highly vulnerable to the rainfall effects associated with climate change. Permanent or temporary out-migration can provide an individual or family the opportunity to mitigate against these effects. One major challenge to quantifying the impact of climate change on out-migration is lack of appropriate spatial and temporal data. Out-migration data must be adequately detailed to include both long- and short-term departures. The climate data must provide fine scale, community-specific detail. To examine the climate variability as a factor of out-migration we examine individual- and community-level responses using highly detailed, full migration histories of 3150 individuals with fine-scale rainfall data. Using this multi-method approach we examine the probability of out-migration as well as out-migration duration and destination as they relate to locally measured rainfall. The results suggest that out-migration behavior does not generally change because of failures or variation in the rainy season.