Evolution of plug-in electric vehicle demand: Assessing consumer perceptions and intent to purchase over time. (May 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Carley, Sanya; Siddiki, Saba; Nicholson-Crotty, Sean
• Is Part Of: Transportation research. Volume 70(2019)
• Page Start: 94
• Page End: 111
• Publication Date: 2019-05
• Subjects: Plug-in electric vehicle -- Consumer -- Intent to purchase -- Technology diffusion; O33 -- R41 -- L91 -- Q42; Transportation -- Research -- Periodicals; Transportation -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; 354.76
• DOI: 10.1016/j.trd.2019.04.002
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1361-9209

Abstract

Highlights: We study how to intent to purchase plug-in electric vehicles has changed over time, from 2011 to 2017. Evaluate the importance of benefits and barriers, trialability, and observability over time. Use two national surveys of potential car buyers in the 21 largest American cities. Find that intent to purchase has increased, driven by changes in perceptions about relative advantages. Other important factors include previous ownership, social influence, and charging infrastructure. Abstract: The diffusion of plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) is a topic that has received substantial attention in recent years. In part, this heightened interest reflects rapid concurrent developments in policy, technology, and industry strategies designed to spur the uptake of this radical, emerging technology. Governments from all levels are enacting various monetary and non-monetary incentives to encourage PEV adoption; developments in battery technology are likening the performance of PEVs to conventional vehicles; and all major vehicle manufacturers now have a PEV offering. Ultimately, however, the effect of these developments is contingent upon consumer interest. Thus, in this paper we study whether, alongside technology and market developments, consumer interest in PEVs has changed over time. To answer this question, we evaluate the degree to which intent to purchase or lease a battery electric vehicle and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, respectively, has changed between 2011 and 2017, and how the factors that explain variation in such intent have also changed over time. Our data come from two national surveys of potential car buyers in the 21 largest American cities. Among the key findings that we derive from the analysis are that, among survey respondents, intent to purchase a PEV has increased between 2011 and 2017, and perceptions about the trialability, observability, network effects, and policies explain an increasing share of the variation in intent to purchase as time evolves.