Exploring the 2 °C target with 100 percent renewable energy under uncertainty in climate sensitivity. (February 2019) - Yasuoka, Rieko
Abstract: Renewable energy has gained main issues in energy policy globally due to its rapid expansion after the Fukushima daiichi nuclear accident. The Paris agreement triggered to publish numerous studies to meet the 2 °C or well-below target. However, little studies had carried out in achieving 100% renewable energy up to 2100 simultaneously aiming the target, to which we addressed in this study by using our cost-minimizing resource balance models. The models are consisted from production of resources, land use and land use changes, inter-regional transportation, energy conversion (power, liquid fuels, gas), production of materials, final demand, wood products, disposal of used products, and materials recycling. In order to address uncertainty in climate sensitivity to meet the target, we integrated the latest version of simplified climate model by Nordhaus to our models. We clarified that the temperature rise calculated by the simplified climate model ranged widely due to uncertainty in climate sensitivity, resulted in the energy structure changes to meet the target as well.