Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns. Issue 5 (13th March 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Vousdoukas, Michalis I.; Voukouvalas, Evangelos; Dosio, Alessandro; Feyen, Luc
• Is Part Of: Geophysical research letters. Volume 44:Issue 5(2017)
• Page Start: 2416
• Page End: 2426
• Publication Date: 2017-03-13
• Subjects: wave climate changes -- extreme waves -- coastal hazard -- nonstationary EVA -- teleconnections -- AAO, ENSO, and NAO; Geophysics -- Periodicals; Planets -- Periodicals; Lunar geology -- Periodicals; 550
• DOI: 10.1002/2016GL072488
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0094-8276

Abstract

Abstract: In this study we conducted a comprehensive modeling analysis to identify global trends in extreme wave energy flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emission pathway (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100 year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the southern temperate zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long‐term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low‐lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected relative sea level rise and more extreme wave activities. Key Points: Extreme waves will change along a large portion of the coasts generally increasing in the S. Hemisphere and decreasing in the N. Hemisphere The projected changes of extreme waves can be explained with a projected intensification of climatic patterns such as AAO, ENSO, and NAO