Cost-benefit analysis of yellow-label vehicles scrappage subsidy policy: A case study of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China. (20th September 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zhou, Jia; Wang, Jinnan; Jiang, Hongqiang; Cheng, Xi; Lu, Yaling; Zhang, Wei; Bi, Jun; Xue, Wenbo; Liu, Nianlei
• Is Part Of: Journal of cleaner production. Volume 232(2019)
• Page Start: 94
• Page End: 103
• Publication Date: 2019-09-20
• Subjects: Cost-benefit analysis -- Yellow-label vehicle -- Vehicle scrappage subsidy policy -- Accelerated vehicle retirement -- Beijing-tianjin-hebei region -- China; Factory and trade waste -- Management -- Periodicals; Manufactures -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; Déchets industriels -- Gestion -- Périodiques; Usines -- Aspect de l'environnement -- Périodiques; 628.5
• DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.312
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0959-6526

Abstract

Abstract: From 1990 to 2017, the number of vehicles in China increased sharply from 5 million to 310 million, and vehicle emissions became one of the major sources of air pollution. Among the main sources of PM2.5 in Beijing, the contributions from vehicle sources increased from 5.6% (2000) to 31.1% (2012) to 45% (2017). In 2010, the CO, hydrocarbon (HC), NOx, and particulate matter (PM) emissions of yellow-label vehicles (YLVs) accounted for 46.1%, 47.9%, 63.1% and 86.1% of the total emissions from on-road vehicles. In recent years, China has been implementing a YLV scrappage subsidy policy to control air pollution, and this policy has cost several hundred billion yuan nationwide. However, China has not evaluated the costs and benefits of the policy. Many people question whether the YLV scrappage subsidy policy is worthwhile, but all the stakeholders involved complicate the process of accurately evaluating the true value of the policy. In this study, we evaluated and compared the costs and benefits of the policy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region based on 1.362 million YLVs from 2008 to 2015. Because of the implementation of the policy, the PM2.5, PM10, NOx, CO and HC emissions in the BTH region decreased by 16.46, 18.12, 174.44, 669.11, and 91.64 kt, respectively, in 2008–2015. The results show that the policy played an important role in reducing pollutant emissions and improving environmental quality in the BTH region. The costs, benefits, and net benefits of the policy were 13.69, 34.03, and 20.34 billion yuan, respectively. The cost-benefit ratio in the BTH region was 1:2.49; at the city scale, Beijing ranked first (1:7.27), and the cost-benefit ratios of Tianjin and Hebei Province were 1:2.06 and 1:1.14, respectively. Of the 13 cities in the BTH region, Beijing had the highest net benefits, amounting to 16.43 billion yuan, while Handan City has the lowest net benefits, amounting to −0.58 billion yuan . The results may provide scientific support for the promotion of older vehicle and diesel vehicle scrappage subsidy policies, the development of cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and effective environmental decision-making in China. Highlights: Based on net number of scrappage YLVs, net benefits of the policy are calculated. This paper estimates costs and benefits of the policy based on 1.27 million YLVs. The costs, benefits, and net benefits are 13.69, 34.03, and 20.34 billion yuan. The results help China promote vehicle scrappage subsidy policy on a large scale. The results promote the development of the cost-benefit analysis in China.