Political Moderation and Polarization in the Heartland: Economics, Rurality, and Social Identity in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. Issue 2 (3rd April 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Oberhauser, Ann M.; Krier, Daniel; Kusow, Abdi M.
• Is Part Of: Sociological quarterly. Volume 60:Issue 2(2019)
• Page Start: 224
• Page End: 244
• Publication Date: 2019-04-03
• Subjects: Populism -- 2016 presidential elections -- U.S. Heartland -- political polarization -- social identities -- Iowa politics; Sociology -- Periodicals; 301.05
• DOI: 10.1080/00380253.2019.1580543
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0038-0253

Abstract

ABSTRACT: The 2016 U.S. presidential election was a watershed event that signaled decreasing political moderation and increasing partisan polarization, authoritarianism, and ethno-nationalism. Iowa, located at the center of the American Heartland, swung to the political right more than any other state. Multivariate regression analysis of county-level data is used to determine the relative contribution of factors reputed to have caused voters to support Trump: rurality, economic distress, and social identity. We find that rurality and social identity, but not economic distress, were significantly correlated with Iowa's swing to Trump. Polarization along these social divisions must be addressed if the Heartland is to return to political moderation.