Some important uncertainties related to climate change in projections for the Brazilian hydropower expansion in the Amazon. (15th December 2017)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Mendes, Carlos André B.; Beluco, Alexandre; Canales, Fausto Alfredo
• Is Part Of: Energy. Volume 141(2017)
• Page Start: 123
• Page End: 138
• Publication Date: 2017-12-15
• Subjects: Climate change -- Global circulation models -- Climate change scenarios -- Brazilian energy system -- Hydropower expansion -- Amazon region; Power resources -- Periodicals; Power (Mechanics) -- Periodicals; Energy consumption -- Periodicals; 333.7905
• DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.09.071
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0360-5442

Abstract

Abstract: Brazil has an energy system with a hydrothermal characteristic that interconnects consumers and generators covering 98% of the demand for energy supplies. Most of the plants are concentrated in the southeast region, where the largest consumers and the largest population concentration are located. The expansion of this system, considering the hydroelectric contributions, will occur exploring the potentials located in the Amazon region. This analysis paper shows that the variations imposed by climate changes on some climatological variables create significant uncertainties about the power generation forecasts of the hydroelectric power plants to be installed in the Amazon, thus compromising the financial economic feasibility of these enterprises and also possibly compromising the expansion plans of the Brazilian energy system. The methodological approach uses information from various climate change scenarios and compares those with historical hydrological patterns and generation information. By exploring the characteristics of a large-scale hydrothermal system with high dependence on water resources, this paper provides valuable insights on how energy policy would address hydroelectric vulnerabilities and climate change. This analysis is focused on the Brazilian case but reveals important issues related to systems with hydro thermal characteristics. Highlights: We estimated flows of five rivers in Amazon for different scenarios for the year 2100. We estimate the influence of climate change on the variability of river flows in 2100. We found important uncertainties in the projections for river flows in 2100 in Amazon.