Spatiotemporal Patterns and Risk Factors for Scrub Typhus From 2007 to 2017 in Southern China. (10th December 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Zheng, Canjun; Jiang, Dong; Ding, Fangyu; Fu, Jingying; Hao, Mengmeng
• Is Part Of: Clinical infectious diseases. Volume 69:Number 7(2019)
• Page Start: 1205
• Page End: 1211
• Publication Date: 2018-12-10
• Subjects: scrub typhus -- environmental niche -- risk zones -- disease control; Communicable diseases -- Periodicals; 616.905
• DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciy1050
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1058-4838

Abstract

Abstract: Background: Substantial outbreaks of scrub typhus, coupled with the discovery of this vector-borne disease in new areas, suggest that the disease remains remarkably neglected. The objectives of this study were to map the contemporary and potential transmission risk zones of the disease and to provide novel insights into the health burden imposed by scrub typhus in southern China. Methods: Based on the assembled data sets of annual scrub typhus cases and maps of environmental and socioeconomic correlates, a boosted regression tree modeling procedure was used to identify the environmental niche of scrub typhus and to predict the potential infection zones of the disease. Additionally, we estimated the population living in the potential scrub typhus infection areas in southern China. Results: Spatiotemporal patterns of the annual scrub typhus cases in southern China between 2007 and 2017 reveal a tremendous, wide spread of scrub typhus. Temperature, relative humidity, elevation, and the normalized difference vegetation index are the main factors that influence the spread of scrub typhus. In southern China, the predicted highest transmission risk areas of scrub typhus are mainly concentrated in several regions, such as Yunnan, Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and Fujian. We estimated that 162 684 million people inhabit the potential infection risk zones in southern China. Conclusions: Our results provide a better understanding of the environmental and socioeconomic factors driving scrub typhus spread, and estimate the potential infection risk zones beyond the disease's current, limited geographical extent, which enhances our capacity to target biosurveillance and help public health authorities develop disease control strategies. Abstract : This data-driven study provides a baseline for understanding the environmental niche of scrub typhus in southern China, by estimating the potential infection risk zones of the disease, beyond its current, limited geographical extent.