Facilitating the elicitation of beliefs for use in Bayesian Belief modelling. (December 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hassall, Kirsty L.; Dailey, Gordon; Zawadzka, Joanna; Milne, Alice E.; Harris, Jim A.; Corstanje, Ron; Whitmore, Andrew P.
• Is Part Of: Environmental modelling & software. Volume 122(2019)
• Publication Date: 2019-12
• Subjects: Bayes nets -- Belief networks -- Expert elicitation -- Conditional probability tables; Environmental monitoring -- Computer programs -- Periodicals; Ecology -- Computer simulation -- Periodicals; Digital computer simulation -- Periodicals; Computer software -- Periodicals; Environmental Monitoring -- Periodicals; Computer Simulation -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Surveillance -- Logiciels -- Périodiques; Écologie -- Simulation, Méthodes de -- Périodiques; Simulation par ordinateur -- Périodiques; Logiciels -- Périodiques; Computer software; Digital computer simulation; Ecology -- Computer simulation; Environmental monitoring -- Computer programs; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 363.70015118
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2019.104539
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1364-8152

Abstract

Abstract: Expert opinion is increasingly being used to inform Bayesian Belief Networks, in particular to define the conditional dependencies modelled by the graphical structure. The elicitation of such expert opinion remains a major challenge due to both the quantity of information required and the ability of experts to quantify subjective beliefs effectively. In this work, we introduce a method designed to initialise conditional probability tables based on a small number of simple questions that capture the overall shape of a conditional probability distribution before enabling the expert to refine their results in an efficient way. These methods have been incorporated into a software Application for Conditional probability Elicitation (ACE), freely available at https://github.com/KirstyLHassall/ACE (Hassall, 2019). Highlights: We present an open source Application for Conditional probability Elicitation. Complex interdependent relationships can be elicited in a semi-automatic approach. The scoring algorithm and software facilitate expert elicitation for use within BBNs.