Quantile relationship between oil and stock returns: Evidence from emerging and frontier stock markets. (November 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Balcilar, Mehmet; Demirer, Rıza; Hammoudeh, Shawkat
• Is Part Of: Energy policy. Volume 134(2019)
• Publication Date: 2019-11
• Subjects: Stock returns -- Oil prices -- Quantile regression -- Emerging markets; C22 -- G12 -- Q40; Energy policy -- Periodicals; Politique énergétique -- Périodiques; Electronic journals; 333.79
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.110931
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0301-4215

Abstract

Abstract: This study extends the literature on the asymmetric effect of oil price fluctuations on emerging and frontier stock markets via a quantile-on-quantile approach that allows to capture normal and extreme states in each respective market. We find that oil risk exposures are heterogeneous across the emerging and frontier stock markets and indeed display quantile-specific characteristics. Observing uniform patterns of oil risk exposures within groups of countries that include both importers and exporters, we argue that oil price risk serves as a systematic risk proxy, capturing the market's concerns regarding global growth expectations, rather than a simple import/export commodity. Our findings suggest that signals from the oil market, either via measures of trading activity in oil futures or changes in basis values, could be utilized by policy makers to improve models of stock market volatility. Highlights: Oil risk exposures are heterogeneous across the emerging and frontier stock markets. Asymmetric oil risk exposures observed for most developing stock markets with quantile specific patterns. Widespread oil effect, particularly at low oil return quantiles, regardless of the stock market state. Risk exposures are not necessarily explained by import/export characteristics of the host countries. Oil price risk seems to serve as a systematic risk factor.