Comparison of Conventional Lipoprotein Tests and Apolipoproteins in the Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease: Data From UK Biobank. Issue 7 (13th August 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Welsh, Claire; Celis-Morales, Carlos A.; Brown, Rosemary; Mackay, Daniel F.; Lewsey, James; Mark, Patrick B.; Gray, Stuart R.; Ferguson, Lyn D.; Anderson, Jana J.; Lyall, Donald M.; Cleland, John G.; Jhund, Pardeep S.; Gill, Jason M.R.; Pell, Jill P.; Sattar, Naveed; Welsh, Paul
• Is Part Of: Circulation. Volume 140:Issue 7(2019)
• Publication Date: 2019-08-13
• Subjects: apolipoprotein A-1 -- apolipoprotein B -- cardiovascular diseases -- cholesterol, HDL -- cholesterol, LDL; Blood -- Circulation -- Periodicals; Cardiovascular system -- Periodicals; Cardiology -- Periodicals; Heart -- Diseases -- Periodicals; Blood Circulation; Cardiovascular System; Vascular Diseases; 616.1
• DOI: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.119.041149
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0009-7322

Abstract

Abstract : Background: Total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) measurements are central to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment, but there is continuing debate around the utility of other lipids for risk prediction. Methods: Participants from UK Biobank without baseline CVD and not taking statins, with relevant lipid measurements (n=346 686), were included in the primary analysis. An incident fatal or nonfatal CVD event occurred in 6216 participants (1656 fatal) over a median of 8.9 years. Associations of nonfasting lipid measurements (total cholesterol, HDL-C, non–HDL-C, direct and calculated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol [LDL-C], and apolipoproteins [Apo] A1 and B) with CVD were compared using Cox models adjusting for classical risk factors, and predictive utility was determined by the C-index and net reclassification index. Prediction was also tested in 68 649 participants taking a statin with or without baseline CVD (3515 CVD events). Results: ApoB, LDL-C, and non–HDL-C were highly correlated ( r >0.90), while HDL-C was strongly correlated with ApoA1 ( r =0.92). After adjustment for classical risk factors, 1 SD increase in ApoB, direct LDL-C, and non–HDL-C had similar associations with composite fatal/nonfatal CVD events (hazard ratio, 1.23, 1.20, 1.21, respectively). Associations for 1 SD increase in HDL-C and ApoA1 were also similar (hazard ratios, 0.81 [both]). Adding either total cholesterol and HDL-C, or ApoB and ApoA, to a CVD risk prediction model (C-index, 0.7378) yielded similar improvement in discrimination (C-index change, 0.0084; 95% CI, 0.0065, 0.0104, and 0.0089; 95% CI, 0.0069, 0.0109, respectively). Once total and HDL-C were in the model, no further substantive improvement was achieved with the addition of ApoB (C-index change, 0.0004; 95% CI, 0.0000, 0.0008) or any measure of LDL-C. Results for predictive utility were similar for a fatal CVD outcome, and in a discordance analysis. In participants taking a statin, classical risk factors (C-index, 0.7118) were improved by non–HDL-C (C-index change, 0.0030; 95% CI, 0.0012, 0.0048) or ApoB (C-index change, 0.0030; 95% CI, 0.0011, 0.0048). However, adding ApoB or LDL-C to a model already containing non–HDL-C did not further improve discrimination. Conclusions: Measurement of total cholesterol and HDL-C in the nonfasted state is sufficient to capture the lipid-associated risk in CVD prediction, with no meaningful improvement from addition of apolipoproteins, direct or calculated LDL-C. Abstract : Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.