Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation. (4th October 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Lee, Heera; Brown, Calum; Seo, Bumsuk; Holman, Ian; Audsley, Eric; Cojocaru, George; Rounsevell, Mark
• Is Part Of: Environmental research letters. Volume 14:Number 10(2019:Oct.)
• Publication Date: 2019-10-04
• Subjects: the 1.5 °C Paris target -- negative emissions technologies -- dietary change -- reforestation -- afforestation -- food consumption; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; Human ecology -- Research -- Periodicals; Environmental health -- Periodicals; 333.7
• DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab3744
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1748-9326

Abstract

Abstract: Land-based mitigation, particularly through afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation, is an important component of the Paris Agreement to limit average global temperature increases to between 1.5 °C and 2 °C. However, the specific actions that would ensure sufficient carbon sequestration in forests remain unclear, as do their trade-offs against other land-based objectives. We use a regional integrated assessment model to identify the conditions under which European forests reach the extent required by mitigation targets. We compare stylised scenarios of changes in meat demand, bioenergy crop production, irrigation efficiency, and crop yield improvement. Only 42 out of 972 model simulations achieved minimum levels of food provision and forest extent without the need to change dietary preferences, but relied on crop yield improvements within Europe of at least 30%. Maintaining food imports at today's levels to avoid the potential displacement of food production and deforestation required at least a 15% yield improvement, or a drastic reduction in meat consumption (avg. 57%). The results suggest that the large-scale afforestation/reforestation planned in European targets is virtually impossible to achieve without transformation of the food system, making it unlikely that Europe will play its required role in global efforts to limit climate change without utilising land beyond its borders.