The impact of reducing alcohol consumption in Australia: An estimate of the proportion of potentially avoidable cancers 2013–2037. Issue 11 (25th February 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Wilson, Louise F.; Baade, Peter D.; Green, Adele C.; Jordan, Susan J.; Kendall, Bradley J.; Neale, Rachel E.; Olsen, Catherine M.; Youlden, Danny R.; Webb, Penelope M.; Whiteman, David C.
• Is Part Of: International journal of cancer. Volume 145:Issue 11(2019)
• Page Start: 2944
• Page End: 2953
• Publication Date: 2019-02-25
• Subjects: neoplasms -- risk factors -- alcohol -- potential impact fraction; Cancer -- Periodicals; Cancer -- Prevention -- Periodicals; 616.994
• DOI: 10.1002/ijc.32204
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0020-7136

Abstract

Abstract : The International Agency for Research on Cancer first concluded that alcohol causes cancer in humans in 1988. The World Cancer Research Fund has declared that alcohol causes cancer of the oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, oesophagus (squamous cell carcinoma), female breast, colon, rectum, stomach and liver. It recommended that alcohol be avoided altogether to prevent cancer. We aimed to quantify the impact of reducing alcohol consumption on future cancer incidence in Australia. We used PREVENT 3.01 simulation modelling software to estimate the proportion of cancers that could potentially be prevented over a 25‐year period under two hypothetical intervention scenarios and two latency periods (20 and 30 years). Under a scenario where alcohol consumption abruptly ceases, we estimated up to 4% of alcohol‐related cancers could be avoided over a 25‐year period (~49, 500 cancers, depending on assumed latency). If the maximum consumption of all Australian adults was ≤20 g/day (~two Australian standard drinks), up to 2% of alcohol‐related cancers could be avoided (~29, 600 cancers). The maximum proportions were higher for men (6% for no alcohol consumption; 5% for ≤20 g/day) than women (3%; 1%). The proportion avoidable was highest for oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (17% no alcohol consumption; 9% ≤20 g/day), followed by cancers of the oral cavity (12%; 5%) and pharynx (11%; 5%). The cancer sites with the highest numbers of potentially avoidable cases were colon in men (11, 500; 9, 900) and breast in women (14, 400; 4, 100). Successful interventions to reduce alcohol intake could lead to significant reductions in cancer incidence. Abstract : What's new? The International Agency for Research on Cancer first concluded that consuming alcoholic beverages causes cancer in humans three decades ago. Despite downward trends, in Australia 28% of men and 10% of women consume more than the recommended 20 g of alcohol/day. This study shows that under a theoretical intervention that saw the abrupt and total cessation of alcohol consumption, up to 4% of alcohol‐related cancers (~50, 000 cancers) could be avoided over a 25‐year period. Up to 2% would be avoided if no Australian adults exceeded national guidelines. Successful interventions to reduce alcohol intake could lead to significant reductions in cancer incidence.