Prediction versus accommodation in economics. Issue 1 (2nd January 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Northcott, Robert
• Is Part Of: Journal of economic methodology. Volume 26:Issue 1(2019)
• Page Start: 59
• Page End: 69
• Publication Date: 2019-01-02
• Subjects: Prediction -- accommodation -- explanation -- economics -- models -- methodology; Economics -- Methodology -- Periodicals; 330.072
• DOI: 10.1080/1350178X.2018.1561080
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1350-178X

Abstract

ABSTRACT: Should we insist on prediction, i.e. on correctly forecasting the future? Or can we rest content with accommodation, i.e. empirical success only with respect to the past? I apply general considerations about this issue to the case of economics. In particular, I examine various ways in which mere accommodation can be sufficient, in order to see whether those ways apply to economics. Two conclusions result. First, an entanglement thesis : the need for prediction is entangled with the methodological role of orthodox economic theory. Second, a conditional predictivism : if we are not committed to orthodox economic theory, then (often) we should demand prediction rather than accommodation – against most current practice.