Modeling the connection between viewscapes and home locations in a rapidly exurbanizing region. (November 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Vukomanovic, Jelena; Vogler, John B.; Petrasova, Anna
• Is Part Of: Computers, environment and urban systems. Volume 78(2019)
• Publication Date: 2019-11
• Subjects: Land change -- Viewshed -- Visual quality -- Exurbanization -- Residential development -- Open-source GIS; City planning -- Data processing -- Periodicals; Regional planning -- Data processing -- Periodicals; 303.4834
• DOI: 10.1016/j.compenvurbsys.2019.101388
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0198-9715

Abstract

Abstract: Low-density exurban development represents a unique form of landscape change motivated by aesthetics and individual choice, whether driven by perceptions of beauty or more broadly as worldviews expressed through outward appearance and actions. However, little is known about how individual preferences for new home sites manifest in landscape patterns of exurbanization. In this study, we examine the extent to which viewscapes - the visible part of a landscape that creates connection between people and their surroundings - drive patterns of development in the Sonoita Plain of Arizona. We mapped the locations of over 2, 000 homes built before and after the Great Recession (~2010) and calculated line-of-sight viewscapes of each home with four metrics: viewscape area, privacy (number of visible neighbors), greenness (NDVI), and terrain ruggedness. We found that exurban homes have significantly larger and more private viewscapes compared to suburban homes and what would be expected by chance. After 2010, exurban homes were built at locations with yet larger and more private viewscapes even as settlement density increased. An autologistic model of post-2010 settlement patterns showed that viewscape privacy is positively associated with the probability of exurban development after accounting for road proximity and the area and greenness of viewscapes. Application of the predictive model was made possible through a new open-source algorithm that computes spatially continuous, all-possible vantage points (1.3M). Our algorithm allows planners to visualize wall-to-wall spatial patterns of viewscape drivers across a large region and more comprehensively consider the roles that viewscapes play in landscape change. Graphical abstract: Probability of future development based on auto-logistic model eq. (Y = −9.63 + (0.03*X1 ) + (0.001*X2 ) + (−0.004*X3 ) + (−0.009*X4 ) + (yW*10.58)) from high (red) to low (blue). High probability of development is found in areas that are very private (A), are private and have larger viewscapes (B) and are private, have larger viewscapes, and see more green (C). Low probability of development is found in areas that are less private, despite being more green (D). X1 = viewscape area (km 2 ), X2 = average maximum NDVI (0.4–0.7), X3 = privacy (number of visible neighbors), X4 = distance to primary roads, yW = auto-covariate. (For interpretation of the references to colour in this figure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this article.)Unlabelled Image Highlights: Exurban viewscapes are larger and more private than suburban or expected by chance. New homes post-2010 have the largest and most private viewscapes yet. New algorithm computes all-possible spatially continuous viewscapes for entire region. Model application reveals role of privacy relative to other visual quality metrics. We predict high probability of exurbanization on 43% of developable lands.