A multi-criteria and multi-expert decision aid approach to evaluate the future Turkish power plant portfolio. (August 2018) - Pasaoglu, Guzay
Abstract: The study presents recent developments in the Turkish power market and introduces an Analytic Hierarchy Process model to evaluate and compare the relative overall attractiveness of power plant options for Turkey. The developed model incorporates technical characteristics, resource availability, socio-economic, environmental, cost, political, legal and organisational aspects, for evaluating and prioritising power plant types (biomass, coal, geothermal, hydro, natural gas, nuclear, petroleum, solar and wind). The study incorporates perspectives of different experts that represent various stakeholders of the Turkish power sector. The study reveals that supply reliability, investment costs and contribution to national economy are perceived as most important factors, whereas waste disposal and decommissioning costs are perceived as least important factors. Considering the overall weights, the most attractive power plant types for the Turkish power market are coal, hydro and natural gas power plants. The study indicates that Turkey should drastically decrease the installed capacity share of traditionally dominant power plants (to 58% from 89% in 2016) and fossil fuel power plants (to 40% from 56% in 2016), and increase the share of renewable power plants (to 52% from 44% in 2016), indigenous resource based power plants (to 67% from 56% in 2016) and nuclear power plants. Highlights: The most attractive power plant options for Turkey are coal, hydro and natural gas. Supply reliability and CAPEX are considered the most important decision criteria. Nuclear, solar, wind, biomass and geothermal power plant capacity increases notably. Additional policy measures to further stimulate solar power deployment is advisable. The AHP results can be used as input for post-"Vision 2023″ energy policy planning.