Understanding smart mobility experiments in the Dutch automobility system: Who is involved and what do they promise?. (February 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Manders, T.N.; Wieczorek, A.J.; Verbong, G.P.J.
• Is Part Of: Futures. Volume 96(2017)
• Page Start: 90
• Page End: 103
• Publication Date: 2018-02
• Subjects: Smart mobility -- Automobility -- ICT -- Transition experiment -- Niches -- Organizational innovation; Economic forecasting -- Periodicals; Technological forecasting -- Periodicals; Economic policy -- Periodicals; Prévision économique -- Périodiques; Prévision technologique -- Périodiques; Politique économique -- Périodiques; Economic forecasting; Economic policy; Technological forecasting; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 330.0112
• DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2017.12.003
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0016-3287

Abstract

Highlights: There are many smart mobility experiments initiated in the Netherlands. Smart mobility experiments rather address automobility's immediate problems than societal challenges. Two niches can be identified: an automated mobility niche and a mobility services niche. The automated mobility niche has a technological orientation and reinforces the dominant role of the car. The mobility services niche focuses on organizational changes and proposes an alternative role of the car. Abstract: In this paper, we aim to understand what ICT-related automobility experiments are initiated in the Netherlands, who is involved and what promises they make, in order to get a better understanding of the magnitude and direction of change. We show an example of how to study a large variety of experiments to understand the emergence of niches before predetermining these as analytical constructs. By analyzing 118 experiments, we can identify the emergence of two niches: an automated mobility niche and a mobility services niche. The automated niche is characterized by large involvement of incumbents and a strong technological orientation. The services niche focuses more on organizational innovations and involves many new entrants. The involvement of a third actor category, 'mature entrants', applies to both niches and concern those actors that fall more or less in-between the common 'incumbent-new entrant' dichotomy. In general, experiments in the automated niche seem to strengthen the dominant role of the car in the automobility system, while services niche experiments mainly portray an altered role of the car in an alternative mobility system. We conclude that we gained a better understanding of the experiments and emerging niches, but at this stage, developments can still head in different directions. Nevertheless, the involvement of mature entrants in both niches, we argue, can be an important indication that more substantial change is likely to occur.