Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) methodology to optimal train configuration and routing of rail hazmat shipments. (April 2018)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Hosseini, S. Davod; Verma, Manish
• Is Part Of: Transportation research. Volume 110(2018)
• Page Start: 79
• Page End: 103
• Publication Date: 2018-04
• Subjects: Hazardous materials -- Risk assessment -- Railroad transportation -- Conditional value-at-risk -- Train configuration -- Risk-averse routing; Transportation -- Research -- Periodicals; Transportation -- Mathematical models -- Periodicals
• DOI: 10.1016/j.trb.2018.02.004
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0191-2615

Abstract

Highlights: We propose a conditional value-at-risk measure to assess rail hazmat risk. An optimization program is developed. Appropriateness of CVaR for risk-averse routing is demonstrated. Problem instances based on the infrastructure of a railroad operator is studied. Risk preference of the decision maker is used to generate routes. Abstract: Hazardous materials (hazmat) incidents are rare though the consequences could be catastrophic. The low probability–high consequence nature of such events mandate that a risk-averse plan be implemented for routing hazmat shipments. We propose a conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) methodology for routing rail hazmat shipments, using the best train configuration, over a given railroad network using the pre-defined train services such that the transport risk as measured by CVaR is minimized. Freight train derailment records were analyzed to model the behavior of railroad accidents, and to estimate conditional probabilities. The proposed methodology was used to study several problem instances generated using the realistic network of a railroad operator, and to demonstrate that the proposed methodology is superior to other measures for risk-averse routing of hazmat shipments and versatile enough to yield routes based on risk preferences of the decision makers.