Nonparametric double additive cure survival models: An application to the estimation of the non-linear effect of age at first parenthood on fertility progression. (June 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Bremhorst, Vincent; Kreyenfeld, Michaela; Lambert, Philippe
• Other Names: Gampe Jutta guest-editor.; Camarda Carlo Giovanni guest-editor.
• Is Part Of: Statistical modelling. Volume 19:Number 3(2019)
• Page Start: 248
• Page End: 275
• Publication Date: 2019-06
• Subjects: Bayesian P-splines -- births -- cure survival models -- continuous covariates -- double additive models -- fertility studies; Linear models (Statistics) -- Periodicals; Mathematical models -- Periodicals; Modèles linéaires (Statistique) -- Périodiques; Modèles mathématiques -- Périodiques; Modèle statistique; Modèle linéaire; Modélisation statistique; Périodique électronique (Descripteur de forme); Ressource Internet (Descripteur de forme); 519.5011
• DOI: 10.1177/1471082X18784685
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1471-082X

Abstract

Abstract: This article introduces double additive models to describe the effect of continuous covariates in cure survival models, thereby relaxing the traditional linearity assumption in the two regression parts. This class of models extends the classical event history models when an unknown proportion of the population under study will never experience the event of interest. They are used on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) to examine how age at first birth relates to the timing and quantum of fertility for given education levels of the respondents. It is shown that the conditional probability of having further children decreases with the mother's age at first birth. While the effect of age at first birth in the third birth's probability model is fairly linear, this is not the case for the second child with an accelerating decline detected for women that had their first kid beyond age 30.