Spatially explicit economic effects of non-susceptible pests' invasion on Bt maize. (October 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Catarino, Rui; Areal, Francisco; Park, Julian; Parisey, Nicolas
• Is Part Of: Agricultural systems. Volume 175(2019)
• Page Start: 22
• Page End: 33
• Publication Date: 2019-10
• Subjects: Bacillus thuringiensis -- Spatially explicit -- Bioeconomic model -- Bt maize -- Pest management -- Population dynamics -- Secondary pest; Agricultural systems -- Periodicals; Agriculture -- Environmental aspects -- Periodicals; 338.16
• DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2019.05.008
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0308-521X

Abstract

Abstract: Maize expressing the Bacillus thuringiensis Cry1Ab toxin ( Bt maize) provides a more effective control of corn borers than the use of insecticides. Yet, the spatial expansion of Bt maize may offer ideal ecological conditions for the development and spread of secondary pests, i.e. pests not susceptible to the expressed toxin. This paper develops a bio-economic, spatially explicit population model to analyse the spread and economic consequences of a secondary pest outbreak. Results show that the present use and even an eventual expansion of Bt maize can be economically and environmentally advantageous as it would decrease insecticide usage intensity. However, we show that caution is required when considering its widespread use. If a pest outbreak is not identified and dealt with at an early stage, it could lead to severe economic impacts even if insecticides are used in combination with the Bt maize. We further discuss potential policy and subsequent management strategies to address this issue. Highlights: The development of a flexible bio-economic spatially explicit population model Secondary pest spread patterns are estimated using spatial forecasting Present use or expansion of Bt maize accrues economic benefits and reduce insecticide use Inappropriate management and use of Bt can lead to ingression of secondary pests Early detection and prompt control are vital to fully attain all the benefits of Bt maize.