Global outsourcing of carbon emissions 1995–2009: A reassessment. Issue 92 (February 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Baumert, Nicolai; Kander, Astrid; Jiborn, Magnus; Kulionis, Viktoras; Nielsen, Tobias
• Is Part Of: Environmental science & policy. Issue 92(2019)
• Page Start: 228
• Page End: 236
• Publication Date: 2019-02
• Subjects: Carbon leakage -- Climate mitigation -- Emission outsourcing -- Input-output analysis -- Emissions embodied in trade -- Consumption-based accounting; Environmental policy -- Periodicals; Environmental sciences -- Periodicals; Environnement -- Politique gouvernementale -- Périodiques; Sciences de l'environnement -- Périodiques; Environmental policy; Environmental sciences; Periodicals; Electronic journals; 363.70561
• DOI: 10.1016/j.envsci.2018.10.010
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 1462-9011

Abstract

Highlights: We investigate carbon flows in international trade, adjusting for differences in production technology between countries. The magnitude of global carbon outsourcing is shown to be much smaller than prior research has suggested. Contrary to prior studies, we find no systematic and consistent emission outsourcing from developed to developing countries. Some developed countries, e.g. Anglophone, were outsourcing emissions while others, e.g. the Nordics, did the opposite. China emerges as a major emission insourcer, whereas other large developing countries show a completely different pattern. Abstract: Increasing global production fragmentation allows for outsourcing of emissions, which may undermine national climate policies. Researchers focusing on the gap between consumption-based and production-based emissions have concluded that developed countries are systematically outsourcing emissions to developing countries. However, asymmetries in emissions embodied in trade may emerge due to differences in carbon intensity of energy and production between different countries, and need not be evidence of outsourcing. This study investigates if previous results concerning emission in –and outsourcing of developed and developing countries hold when emission flows are adjusted for technological differences. Two striking results are demonstrated: first, the magnitude of outsourcing is significantly smaller than previous studies have suggested, and, second, there is no clear divide between developing and developed countries. Large developed Anglophone countries (US, UK, Canada and Australia) were increasingly outsourcing emissions between 1995 and 2009 by shifting toward more carbon-intensive goods in their imports and less carbon intensive goods in exports, whereas other developed countries (i.e. the Nordics, advanced Asia and even the aggregate EU-27) maintained a positive emission trade balance. Among major developing countries, China is a major insourcer of emissions, while other emerging economies show no consistent pattern (e.g. India, Turkey and Brazil) or marginal outsourcing (e.g. Indonesia and Mexico). These results contribute to a more nuanced understanding of the impact of international trade on global carbon emissions.