Anti‐Immigrant Sentiment and the Adoption of State Immigration Policy. Issue 3 (12th March 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Butz, Adam M.; Kehrberg, Jason E.
• Is Part Of: Policy studies journal. Volume 47:Issue 3(2019)
• Page Start: 605
• Page End: 623
• Publication Date: 2019-03-12
• Subjects: Policy sciences -- Periodicals; Policy sciences -- United States -- Periodicals; Political planning -- Periodicals; Social sciences -- Periodicals; 320.6
• DOI: 10.1111/psj.12326
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 0190-292X

Abstract

Abstract : Over the last two decades, the American states have become increasingly active in shaping U.S. immigration policies. One consistent predictor in studies of state immigration policies revolves around public opinion or mass political attitudes in the form of anti‐immigrant sentiment. Unfortunately, past research relies extensively on blunt demographic proxies or other alternative replacements to measure mass opinion. Through incorporating a direct measure of anti‐immigrant sentiment constructed from public opinion surveys, we uncover mixed results. In static models, anti‐immigrant sentiment predicts a state's overall immigration policy restrictiveness or policy "tone"; however, mass opinion fails to consistently predict immigration restrictiveness in more dynamic models of annual policy change and total number of hostile policies. We theorize that state legislators are likely responding to mass opinion with immigration policy restrictiveness when citizens mobilize and demand accountability during times of heightened issue salience. However, during times of reduced salience among the populace the influence of anti‐immigrant sentiment wanes, and commercial and political elites are seemingly able to shift individual immigration policies in more accommodative directions. Anti‐immigrant sentiment can motivate state immigration policy restriction, but likely only during select periods of heightened issue salience and attentive, engaged citizenry. Abstract : 在过去二十年中，美国各州在制定美国移民政策方面变得越来越积极。关于州移民政策的研究普遍围绕公众舆论或政治态度来设定预报因子，且这些预报因子通常呈现为反移民情绪。很遗憾的是，过去的研究广泛依赖钝性人口统计指标或其他替代方法来衡量公众舆论。我们从民意调查中构建出了反移民情绪这一直接性的衡量指标。通过纳入该指标，我们得到的结果莫衷一是：在静态模型中，反移民情绪预测了各州对移民的整体限制情况，或者说是政策"基调"；然而，在更为动态的关于政策的年度变化模型中，民意却不能始终如一地预测出移民政策的限制情况。我们推测，当问题突出时，公民会动员起来并要求实行问责，那么州立法者会就移民政策限制性方面的民意做出回应。然而，当问题在民众之中没有如此突出时，反移民情绪所带来的政策影响将会减弱，商业和政治精英似乎可以在更加宽松的方向上改变移民政策。反移民情绪可以刺激国家移民政策的限制，但这很大可能上只是在特定情况下，即当社会问题尤为突出且公民注意力及参与度很高时。