Impact of error in ocean dynamical background, on the transport of underwater spilled oil. (December 2018) - Li, Yongquan
Highlights: Impact of background error on 3D transport of spilled oil is studied quantitatively. Larger model error and uncertainty are expected for a larger current error level. Background current variation and oil droplets size are two important factors. The results are valuable for oil spill damage assessment and emergency response. Abstract: Based on a validated underwater oil spill model and the hydrodynamic background provided by an unstructured grid, finite-volume, coastal ocean model (FVCOM), a series of numerical experiments are conducted to study the impact of error in ocean dynamical background currents on the 3D transport of underwater spilled oil, in terms of three metrics including oil centroid position, sweeping area, and sweeping volume. Numerical result shows that a larger error in ocean dynamical background currents results in a larger model error expectation and uncertainty for all three metrics. As model time increases, the model error mainly increases and the error growth rate varies unevenly. The sensitivity of the oil spill model to background current error can be interpreted as an integrated result of the temporal and spatial variations of the background current and the movement of oil droplets of different sizes.