An improved intuitionistic fuzzy interval two-stage stochastic programming for resources planning management integrating recourse penalty from resources scarcity and surplus. (10th October 2019) - Guo, Shanshan
Abstract: Two-stage programming (TSP) is popular in resources planning management, especially for limited and precious resources. Remarkable study has been done to improve the model performance. However, one of the biggest obstacle is lack of objectivity when it comes to penalty quantification derived from recourse behavior. Besides, much attention has been paid in the resources deficiency penalty but little in resources residual, which may lead to wasting. In order to clarify the physical meaning of mathematical equation for recourse penalty from both resources scarcity and surplus, the production frontier was estimated and the technical efficiency and shadow prices of resources were introduced into TSP to characterize the resources deficiency and residual penalty, respectively. Then, an intuitionist fuzzy interval two-stage stochastic programming (IFITSP) was generated integrating the uncertainty of fuzzy membership and traditional TSP. An integrated solving approach was proposed coupling several previous uncertain programming methods and an improved robust interval TSP method. A case study was conducted in an arid area of northwest China to schedule agricultural cultivation scale based on limited water resources. The inefficiencies were [0.26, 0.49], [0.14, 0.37] and [0, 0.03] for GZ, LZ, and GT. The shadow prices of GZ, LZ, and GT in 2015 were 12.94, 2.61, 2.67 Yuan/m 3 respectively, indicating the sever water crisis of GZ. The relatively unbiased and abundant decision could be generated by the developed IFITSP to help decision makers with various preferences make tradeoff between benefits and basic crop production requirement as well as balance resources deficiency and surplus. The results also show that the developed model could unveil the uncertainty influence of model inputs on decision strategies and trigger managers to deeply analyze subjective effect and associated risk. By comparison, the proposed methodology can not only clarify the physical meaning of penalty but deal with more complex uncertainty than previous methods. Therefore, the established model can provide reliable and scientific support for resources planning with recourse. Highlights: Production frontier was estimated to help clarify the physical meaning of recourse penalty in two-stage programming (TSP). An intuitionist fuzzy interval TSP was generated involving multiple uncertainties. An integrated solving approach was proposed including an improved method for interval TSP. A case study of planning cultivated area based on limited water resources was demonstrated. The established methodology can be widely applied to resources planning management.