Arctic Amplification Response to Individual Climate Drivers. Issue 13 (2nd July 2019)

• Record Type: Journal Article
• Authors: Stjern, Camilla Weum; Lund, Marianne Tronstad; Samset, Bjørn Hallvard; Myhre, Gunnar; Forster, Piers M.; Andrews, Timothy; Boucher, Olivier; Faluvegi, Gregory; Fläschner, Dagmar; Iversen, Trond; Kasoar, Matthew; Kharin, Viatcheslav; Kirkevåg, Alf; Lamarque, Jean‐François; Olivié, Dirk; Richardson, Thomas; Sand, Maria; Shawki, Dilshad; Shindell, Drew; Smith, Christopher J.; Takemura, Toshihiko; Voulgarakis, Apostolos
• Is Part Of: Journal of geophysical research. Volume 124:Issue 13(2019)
• Page Start: 6698
• Page End: 6717
• Publication Date: 2019-07-02
• Subjects: Arctic amplification -- greenhouse gases -- aerosols -- climate drivers -- climate change; Atmospheric physics -- Periodicals; Geophysics -- Periodicals; 551.5
• DOI: 10.1029/2018JD029726
• Languages: English
• ISSNs: 2169-897X

Abstract

Abstract: The Arctic is experiencing rapid climate change in response to changes in greenhouse gases, aerosols, and other climate drivers. Emission changes in general, as well as geographical shifts in emissions and transport pathways of short‐lived climate forcers, make it necessary to understand the influence of each climate driver on the Arctic. In the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project, 10 global climate models perturbed five different climate drivers separately (CO2, CH4, the solar constant, black carbon, and SO4 ). We show that the annual mean Arctic amplification (defined as the ratio between Arctic and the global mean temperature change) at the surface is similar between climate drivers, ranging from 1.9 (± an intermodel standard deviation of 0.4) for the solar to 2.3 (±0.6) for the SO4 perturbations, with minimum amplification in the summer for all drivers. The vertical and seasonal temperature response patterns indicate that the Arctic is warmed through similar mechanisms for all climate drivers except black carbon. For all drivers, the precipitation change per degree global temperature change is positive in the Arctic, with a seasonality following that of the Arctic amplification. We find indications that SO4 perturbations produce a slightly stronger precipitation response than the other drivers, particularly compared to CO2 . Key Points: Arctic amplification of surface warming is similar between global drivers of climate change Black carbon induces differing vertical and seasonal amplification patterns Sulfate affects Arctic precipitation responses more strongly than other drivers, particularly in the summer season